If I Had My Way

 

Wednesday, February 10, 2010     previous post <>

Microsoft...

Periodically, someone writes some kind of a critique of Microsoft and it's trials and tribulations -- all to no avail. Microsoft is on a downhill slide that will continue until someone does something about the key cause of the most dominant problem.

Dick Brass, a former Microsoft employee, has published an essay entitled, "Microsoft's Creative Destruction"

Some people take joy in Microsoft's struggles, as the popular view in recent years paints the company as an unrepentant intentional monopolist. Good riddance if it fails. But those of us who worked there know it differently. At worst, you can say it's a highly repentant, largely accidental monopolist. It employs thousands of the smartest, most capable engineers in the world. More than any other firm, it made using computers both ubiquitous and affordable. Microsoft's Windows operating system and Office applications suite still utterly rule their markets. 

I think that paragraph explains the situation quite well -- Microsoft IS an unrepentant intentional monopolist -- to this very day. The fact that people are willing to rationalize unpleasant facts can not change the situation. 

Of course, Microsoft's Windows operating system and Office applications suite still utterly rule their markets -- that is the definition of monopoly. As a matter of fact, every thing that happens in the Personal Computer/Internet industry occurs with an eye on Microsoft. The industry can't make a move without evaluating Microsoft's reaction. Even Goggle is a Microsoft Anti-product -- and Apple -- Steve Jobs negotiated a segment of the business with Bill Gates back in the eighties -- and how about Linux, a solution in search of a problem -- allowed to exist as proof that Microsoft has some competition -- you have got to be kidding.

Obviously, it is very difficult for Microsoft to admit it's mistake and work to correct the situation -- as Dr. Phil keeps saying, "You can't correct a problem until you acknowledge it's existence."

And as is usual, the author goes on to complicate the situation by describing a few of the management problems, as if they were causal. Of course Microsoft has management problems -- they were covered quite well, back in 1998, by Jennifer Edstrom and Marlin Eller in their book, "Barbarians Led by Bill Gates - Microsoft from the Inside: How the World's Richest Corporation Wields its Power." The company was formed by Bill Gates and Paul Allen. Gates's former dorm-mate at Harvard, Steve Ballmer, now runs the company -- how is that for management continuity??

The problem is that Microsoft's government sanctioned monopoly plus it's vast resources prevent any kind of competitive challenge -- after all, there is no effective deterrent should Microsoft decide to crush some potential competition.

While I was composing the above Matt Rosoff published a response to Dick Brass -- "Microsoft on iTunes in 2003: 'We were smoked'." In his comments Matt has made some very valid points:

That Brass column echoed a lot of what I've heard from other ex-insiders--bureaucracy, politics, infighting, and endless meetings all conspire to sap agility and creativity. I think that's part of being a large company. Antitrust litigation and the timidity it engendered probably didn't help.

But you have to look at priorities also. Windows and Office are spectacularly successful businesses. Both have greater than 90% market share and greater than 70% profit margins. There's no other business in the world that matches up. So Microsoft's first directive, always, is to preserve those businesses. Nothing that threatens them will see the light of day. NetDocs (the Office Web Apps equivalent that was built in 2001 or so--back when Google was a startup--and never saw the light of day) is a great example. The Xbox never became a full-fledged home entertainment system (no DVR, no CableCARD?) because it would have threatened Windows Media Center. Hotmail was crippled for years so it wouldn't threaten Outlook. And so forth and so on.

The thing is, so what? Microsoft seems to have missed some big opportunities like search and mobile (so far--the game's not over in either market). But taking two near-monopoly, high-profit businesses and actually growing them--and using them to build a strong business in the adjacent enterprise server market--for more than a decade? That's unprecedented in the tech industry.

Matt is right about Windows and Office being successful -- however, he fails to indicate that the success is dependent upon Microsoft's monopoly protection, and an industry's reluctance to challenge that protection.

The open question that we have failed to discuss concerns the security of that position -- I believe that Microsoft has pressed their luck about as far as it can go, and that somebody, somewhere will wake up to the fact that there is a very lucrative market on the Desktop, just waiting to be tapped.

OTOH, IMHO, this is just another opportunity that Microsoft is missing. Can you imagine what would happen if Microsoft were to acquire my middleware, Personal Digital Multimedia ScrapBook, PDMSB (see http://pdmsb.com ) -- convert it to an SDK and use it as the base of a Microsoft Application Store??

In addition, Microsoft just might like to consider tailoring a plan aimed at "Saving the Newspapers".

Doug Skoglund - skoglund@pdmsb.com
SandS Software, Inc.
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